Russia: to invade or not invade Ukraine?

Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org); Pfc. Sandoval, Ashley Wells (eds.), Wisdom Quarterly

Putin's Russia pressures Ukraine as NATO meddles in Russia's affairs (rusi.org)

Vladimir Putin: All the latest news and updates from British view (thesun.co.uk)

.

Vladimir Putin is [allegedly] flexing his muscles and testing Western resolve

Obama passes on the war baton to Biden.

The security situation continues to deteriorate in eastern Ukraine. Ceasefire violations spiked on Friday, with a high number of explosions. Two Ukrainian soldiers were killed.

In a worrisome development, Russian troops have been moved to the border with Ukraine and Crimea.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that no one should be concerned about this – which is precisely why one probably should.

The year 2014 left many in Ukraine and the West painfully aware of how far Russia is willing to go to protect its interests, particularly when it claims otherwise.

Map of Russia and Ukraine with Siberia and North Asia (mapsofworld.com)

.

US European Command has raised its alert status to the highest level. NATO and Ukraine’s Western partners have made it clear that they are watching – a signal that they hope will in itself help to deter aggressive action.

Russia wasted no time in trying to build a defensive pretext, so that if it escalates further, it can blame someone else for provoking it.

According to Peskov, military activity is to ensure Russia’s own security, in response to increased military activity of NATO countries. The fact that any concern from NATO is a response to Russia’s build-up is irrelevant to the Kremlin’s chronology.

War for Xmas: Putin 'may exploit holidays" (The Sun)

Russia may be genuinely concerned about Ukrainian forces escalating, but it is understandable, given Russia’s recent history in the region, to suspect that this represents intimidation tactics.

The cover of military exercises provided the opportunity to reinforce troops in both eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

In response to reaffirmed support from the US for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Peskov was more explicit, warning that Russia would need to "take extra measures" to protect itself should the US station troops in Ukraine to defend it, or if NATO strengthens its presence in neighboring countries. More

• U.S. and Britain help Ukraine prepare for potential Russian cyberassault, The New York Times (nytimes.com)