Ben Blanchard (Reuters)
Tibetan monks engage in a religious debate inside Jokhang temple in Lhasa, Tibet Autonomous Region, 11/24/09 (Reuters/Nir Elias/file).
TONGREN, China - For Tibetans living near the birthplace of the Dalai Lama, one question is very much on their minds these days: Who will succeed the aging exiled spiritual leader once he dies?The possibility that scares most of them, and is seen as the most likely to happen, is that the atheist Communist government in Beijing will simply appoint its own replacement, with a veneer of tradition and religion thrown in. One of the few certainties about the political future of Tibet is that the death of the current Dalai Lama will cause major ructions in Tibet and overseas.
Some Tibetans fear a violent backlash in what is now called the Tibet Autonomous Region and surrounding provinces with large Tibetan populations -- like Qinghai, Gansu, and Sichuan -- if Beijing unilaterally appointed the next Dalai Lama. There is precedent for that happening. China chose a rival incarnation to succeed the late 10th Panchen Lama, Tibetan Buddhism's second-holiest position, shortly after the Dalai Lama announced his choice in 1995.
"We think China will try to appoint its own Dalai Lama, as it did with the Panchen Lama," said Jigme, a monk in the Tibetan region of Tongren in the arid northwestern province of Qinghai. "If that happens, we will protest," he added, punching his fists into the freezing air. "The people will be very unhappy. This is a religious decision. There should be no politics."
The worry of violence is very real. Anti-Chinese protests erupted in March 2008, in which at least 19 people were killed in riots in Lhasa. Pro-Tibet groups say hundreds died in a subsequent crackdown across the region. The Beijing-anointed Panchen Lama is spurned by most Tibetans as a fake.
The whereabouts of the Dalai Lama-recognized Panchen Lama is one of China's most tightly guarded secrets. China has in the past insisted he is safe, healthy and wants his privacy. "We will not believe in a Dalai Lama chosen by the government," said another Qinghai Tibetan, who gave his name as Jokhar. "Look what happened when they appointed their own Panchen Lama. We don't believe in that one, and never will." More>>
Pres. Obama meets with the Dalai Lama in Washington on Feb. 18, 2010, against trading partner China's wishes (White House/Pete Souza).
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